• It has taken me 8 years to figure this strategy out. I believe it works very well, but it’s not foolproof. It depends on discipline and execution, without which it’s useless. So, here is the strategy in a concise form.

 

 

  1. BX trender on the weekly. If the BX trend on weekly has shifted from green to red bars and is currently red, I am only selling this market I cannot buy. If it is red on the monthly it is further confirmation, and usually you want both, but the weekly gives you an early signal. Likewise, if the bars on the BX weekly are green, I am only buying this market I cannot sell. Usually the monthly will be green also, though as in the case of catching the bottom in a market, the monthly may still be red, but if the weekly has flipped green, it could be an indicator of a bottom in the market. Follow the weekly signal, but if the monthly is the opposite color be more cautious with position sizing and stops.
  2. The fair value band on the daily. If below the band or inside it and it is red, I am selling, if it is green I am buying. I do not sell above, nor buy below it. If the band is deep red it signifies contraction is happening if dark green, expansion is happening. 
  3. Precise timing of entry requires the application of the same rules to the fair value band on the hourly chart. So, if price is below the fair value band on the 1 hour chart, and the band is dark red, that means there is expansion to the downside and prices are actively contracting. I look for a short entry inside the 1 hour band or as price touches it. If the 1 hour fair value band is green I am buying and looking for an entry if price pulls back into or touches close to the band. 
  4. Taking profit. The first way is to eye out where support or resistance is, and close positions at those previous lows or highs. It is pretty easy to see where support and resistances are. They are places where the market was bought up or sold off with strong reversal. To get more details it is possible to look at volume profiles and money flow to show where a lot of buys or sells already exist in any market. More often than not price will bounce of daily support and resistance levels, aim to close all trades close to those areas, not necessarily to the pip.
  5. On taking profit. If there are no clear support or resistances, a good way to exit a trade, is to observe the hourly fair value band color. If the dark green changes to light green that is an indicator of potential price reversal and for long positions to be closed. If a red fair value band shifts from dark red to light red, it can be an indicator that a bottom has formed and price is now reversing to the upside. Waiting for the color to change from red to green or green to red is not the best idea as it would signify price already jumping over the FVB. A combination of FVB color shift, and being close to support of resistance is probably the best indicator.
  6. As with point 5, if I am looking for an entry, a combination of the hourly FVB with a support or resistance level is the ideal form of entry. If I am entering positions close to a resistance level, it increases the odds that shorts will be successful. If I am entering close to support it increases the chance that longs will be successful.
  7. Finally. Do not sell at support, nor buy at resistance. It’s a bad idea, even if all other parameters are met. BX could be red, FVB on daily and hourly could be red, but if price is at major support, it will not work. The same is true if all conditions are green for a long position with price reaching major resistances.
  8. As mentioned in the intro. All depends on execution. Have to put hard stops in and automate execution. If stops are hit, it is vital to accept it rather than try re-entering.
  9. Do not hold forever. Do not try to get a 30% move in the Nasdaq100 or in USDCHF or in anything. Try to lock in 2-5% and take profit. Wait for price to reset and then repeat the process. In general price will move 3% one direction then retrace 2%. Taking profit at 3% is perfect, then wait for the retrace 2% and repeat the process. Not locking in profits leaves me frustrated and makes me break my own rules. So reward yourself with profits.
  10. Keeping calm under pressure. If all parameters remain true, there is no urgency to close any position for fear of losing unrealized gains. Only when specific color changes happen in the FVB should I take action and the action should be done with zero emotion. If price gets on the other side of the FVB I must cut, with zero regret. Taking the loss is very important.